The overall market analysis of the western Cai Yi Jie market in the fourth quarter

by:CAI YI JIE     2019-01-30

 According to the monitoring data, the output of the seven western provinces (Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Tibet) in the fourth quarter of 2018 was 1.65 million tons, of which Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia became the main areas in the western region with a production capacity of 1.25 million tons per year. supply.

 Supply situation:

 Since July this year, the upstream gas supply side has begun to limit the gas in the Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. plant in the western region, and the operating rate in the region has also dropped significantly. There were no factory starts in the fourth quarter of Gansu, and the supply in the area was from the surrounding areas.

 Device dynamics:

 Up to now, the number of new overhaul factories in the western region has totaled 6 this year, involving a total capacity of 3.3 million cubic meters per day, and it is still under maintenance. According to the market, there is no intention to start construction in the short term, and the supply in the region is slightly reduced. .

 Price analysis:

 According to the monitoring data, the average transaction price of Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. in the seven western provinces in the fourth quarter of 2018 is significantly lower than that in 2017. In 2017, the winter market gap was large, and the overall domestic Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. price was significantly higher than in previous years.

 Shaanxi: From October to December 2018, the average price of Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. in Shaanxi was 4568/ton, down 1098/ton from 2017. In the winter of 2017, due to the lack of gas supply from the upstream gas source, the operating rate of most factories was low, resulting in a shortage of market resources, and domestic Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. prices skyrocketed. As early as April 2018, the upstream gas supply party had already started to deal with the issue of winter supply and supply. The supply security work was carried out in an orderly manner, and the overall supply gap was small. Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, the Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. price has deviated from expectations, and the average price in Shaanxi has been hovering around 4100-4200/ton. At the beginning of December, with the sudden drop in temperature across the country, the upstream gas supply began to significantly reduce gas. At the same time, the demand for heating natural gas for residents increased sharply. Under the influence of multiple factors, the price of Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. rebounded sharply. The average transaction price in Shaanxi reached 5,500/ton. However, due to the high price, the terminal was difficult to accept and the price began to fall slightly. At the end of December, the temperature in various places dropped sharply, and the price rebounded again, but the increase was small.

 According to the market, the price of raw materials in the northwest and other places will increase by 0.2/square to 2.58/ square from December 27, and the production cost of the factory will increase again, increasing the production pressure of the factory. It is expected that the Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. price in Shaanxi will continue to rise in the short term, but the increase will not be too large, estimated at around 200/ton. In the near future, the operating load and fuel consumption of industrial users will decline. The supply and demand of the Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. market will return to equilibrium. In the long run, prices will still fall.

 Inner Mongolia: From October to December 2018, the average price of Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. in Inner Mongolia was 4493/ton, down 967/ton from 2017. From October to November, affected by price cuts and reduced demand in the surrounding markets, the transaction price in Inner Mongolia was also dominated by small oscillations, and the price hovered around 4200-4400/ton. At the beginning of December, the gas restriction in Inner Mongolia increased, the supply plummeted, the price rose sharply, and then the price was too high and was resisted by downstream users. The price began to drop to around 4,900/ton. Recently, with the sharp cooling down across the country, market demand will pick up again, and prices will continue to rise in the short term. In the long run, the price trend is not much different from that in Shaanxi.

 Ningxia: From October to December 2018, the average price of Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. in Ningxia was 4515/ton, down 792/ton from 2017. Because Ningxia and Shaanxi are very close, the price trends are basically the same. From October to November, they are affected by the price of Shaanxi. The transaction price in Ningxia is also dominated by shocks. At the beginning of December, due to the recovery of the surrounding factories, the transaction price in the region rebounded sharply and began to decline again at the end of the year. In the short term, there is no factory start-stop work in Ningxia. It is expected that the price of factories in Ningxia will be stable in the short term.

 Xinjiang: From October to December 2018, the average price of Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. in Xinjiang was 4053/ton, down 81/ton from 2017. From October to November, under the influence of the overall market conditions in the Northwest region, the average transaction price in Xinjiang did not fluctuate significantly. In October, Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. price demand was less, and the price was below the main behavior. In November, the upstream gas supply began to limit the domestic factories, the operating rate was greatly reduced, and the factory prices began to rise. At the end of December, the upstream gas supplier raised the price of the gas source, driving the price of Xinjiang to rebound slightly. In the short term, there is no major change in the supply of Xinjiang, and its price is adjusted according to the price of the surrounding factories.

 Gansu: From October to December 2018, the average price of Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. in Gansu was 4550/ton, up 154/ton from 2017. The areas affecting their prices are mainly Ningxia and Xinjiang, but due to the small demand in Gansu, local factories can meet their basic requirements. Since the fourth quarter of this year, the upstream gas supply has begun to impose different levels of cardboard packaging box restrictions on domestic Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. plants. The monitoring data shows that there is no factory in Gansu in the fourth quarter, and all of them are currently under maintenance and there is no plan for start-up in the short term.

 Qinghai: Because there is only one Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. factory in Kunlun Golmud in Qinghai, and its main supply to Tibet, the price is basically stable, the shipment is relatively stable, and it is not affected by the changes in other regions. Therefore, the transaction price in the region has not been shown yet.

 Market outlook:

 In 2019, the production rate of Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. plants in the northwest region continued to slow down, and the market supply did not change significantly. Under the “coal to gas” policy, the market demand in the western region may increase slightly in 2019.

 It is estimated that the average price of Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. in the seven western provinces will be lower than 2018 in 2019, and the ex-factory price will fluctuate between 3700-4500/ton, and the average annual price may be lower than 4100/ton. In 2019, the growth rate of domestic Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. market demand slowed down, and some areas may have some demand decline; while the receiving stations put into operation and the supply of imports is sufficient. Under the policy control, the peak-to-valley difference in the Foshan Cai Yi Jie Printing Co.,LTD. market price will continue to narrow in 2019, and the market price trend will continue to stabilize.


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